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​Randomness as an engineering strategy?

18/1/2026

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Or: Luck; it’s a thing!

When there is randomness in engineer
Sometimes there is remains chance in any well formed engineering process
In this article I am going to go over 3 case studies from different engineering fields to show:
  1. How sometimes you need to resort to experimental methods.
  2. And, when you do, how you might, or might not beat the competition.
Case study 1 – Materials Engineering
Are you familiar with the development of the vulcanisation of rubber?
If you are, then you know how remarkable and strange that story is. If not, then be prepared to be amazed or maybe even disappointed at how much randomness can be a major influence over engineering success.
Charles Goodyear had become obsessed with doing something with rubber.
He believed that he was directed by God to take rubber and turn it into something beneficial to humanity. This obsession drove him to bankruptcy numerous times (meaning his imprisonment for a period), and his family into poverty. To top it off, he almost killed himself a number of times experimenting.
Despite the consequences – his obsession drove him on. Some call him an eccentric, but mentally unbalanced could be a better description.
While he had shown technical insights as a child, he had not been given any advanced education.
He was more a tinkerer. And it was a tinkerer’s approach he used to improving rubber.
A number of experiments had shown some promise, but they ultimately failed. Then, either by accident or elimination of other options, sulphur was mixed with the rubber.
This cross linked the molecules in the rubber – making it tough and durable while keeping its compliance.
Some say he called in vulcanisation and some say it was a contemporary British inventor of the same process. Personally, given his religiosity – I think he would refrain from giving praise to any god but his own.
See below for the short video showing a perspective on Goodyear and how he made this discovery/invention.
Something to note. Charles Goodyear did not found the company Goodyear. The company was named after him by others who wanted to recognise his achievement.

Case Study 2 – Electronics Engineering
Are you familiar with the development of the blue LED? Watch the video below if not.
The key points are:
  • Shuji Nakamura was obsessed by the development of the blue LED.
  • He focused on growing the perfect crystal – to then make the LED.
  • He really only ever had hunches.
  • He went against the mainstream, and chose to explore gallium nitride over zinc selenide.
  • He defied his boss after being asked to stop working on the blue LED due to a lack of success after decades of effort.
  • He replaced the use of an electron beam with simple heating to generate light – this was another hunch – and then understood why the electron beam method worked.
  • He at times used brute force approaches that were then later refined through adjustments.
  • He continues to work on smaller LEDs after winning a Nobel Prize and developing the blue LED.
  • No-one else had been able to create a blue LED.
 
Case Study 3 – Marine engineering
Everyone today assumes boat propellers are short. They are screw propellers, but they are not long like other screws. We know this because that’s how propellers have been for over a century. However, as you might infer from drawings by Leonardo Da Vinci, people first assumed screw propellers would be long – like the screw drill bits used to drill holes in wood or screw presses or water screws used to lift water. It just seemed obvious that screw propellers would also be long.
Around the 1830s there were many people exploring improved screw propellers.
One of them was Francis Pettit Smith. He had been fascinated with boats as a boy and later in life reached the conclusion that screw propellers were superior to paddles.
As did many others.
There was thus a competition on to find and patent the best screw propeller.
Most were doing the sensible thing of trying different configurations: pitch, speed diameter, length. They would build a propeller of one combination, note its performance, build another, note the change in performance, and then work out what to try next.
Our man Francis though ended up doing things a bit differently.
He was not known as being the most precise and methodical of his contemporaries. That probably would have been John Ericsson, and if not for what I am about to mention, John Ericsson, while being noted as a contributor to the screw propeller, would have likely been noted as the sole contributor. Thus, Francis was a bit more random than would normally be considered ideal for an engineer.
Despite this lack of method, Francis had the good fortune to have struck a log while testing a propeller on a boat.
This collision knocked the majority of the propeller off – leaving only a fraction connected to the shaft.
Wisdom of the time would have expected the boat to founder. However, instead, the boat surged forward.
Francis Pettit Smith had discovered/invented a far superior screw propeller. The one that was then adopted by later ship builders.
 
What do we take from this?
The above examples show how sometimes we need to use experimental approaches. Our understanding of the natural laws is insufficient. When we do, there is always the chance that someone else will try that near perfect permutation before we do.
Or maybe we will be the ones who try it first.
Regardless, the lesson to take from this is the same. This was not a matter of genius. Effort and commitments certainly played a role – but luck was the decider once those involved committed.
So don’t beat yourself up if you did not win in those circumstances, do not think you are amazing if you did win, do not lionise those who do win, and certainly do not think less of those who did not. Because, in such cases, all you can do is commit and hope.
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How did they do that? The SpaceX Raptor Engine Evolution

9/2/2025

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Picture
You have probably seen this photo a number of times now. The three-stage evolution of the SpaceX rocket engine. A visual exemplar of engineering excellence.
It is indeed an impressive feat; many have wondered at how the plumbing was simplified so much. Some have even felt some pride; being part of the same professional family. It has also been motivation for other engineers; seeing what can be done when enough engineering effort and skill are applied to a task. And, finally, some simply thought the photos were not genuine; maybe the best evidence that the engineers had done well.
But the real value would come from asking how it was done.
By understanding the engineering thought that was behind such achievement, you can then better reflect upon your own skills and how to improve them.
And that’s what I will do here.
By using the above image, insights I have read about the engine’s evolution, and the knowledge I have shared with you in my book on engineering expertise, I will share with you some concrete examples of this expertise in practice.
First, two things we should note:
  • Given how he has become such a controversial figure of late, it should be noted that this not about deifying (or demonising) Elon Musk. That fact is, even though he would have influenced the approach, the engineering was carried out by a team. And it is their work we are considering.
  • What I write here, while being thoroughly informed by the most recent understanding of engineering expertise, is an inference. There will not be specifics – only higher-level insights into the engineering strategies used.
Now let’s talk about that plumbing. It is obviously the first thing most of us notice. And clearly the best way to get the part count down in such an engine – where most of the engineering effort is focused on ensuring the flow of fuel, oxidant and coolant.
The major reduction is from the first to the second.
It has been reported that the second version was a complete redesign. This is very much aligned with coevolution: where your understanding of the problem evolves with the implementation of the solution. There would have most likely been many lessons learned when designing and implementing the first design.
The lesson here for you is twofold:
  1. If you are working on something very new, then expect that the first effort will be more about learning than about achieving. Even if that first effort is to go into service.
  2. There will likely be little in the first design/effort that is worth keeping. This can be hard to accept. We can become attached to our designs. But work on being more appreciative of the knowledge gained.
The reduction in plumbing as the design evolved from the second to the third version is still significant. Ratio wise, it is probably the same as the respective reduction for the evolution from the first to the second.
The difference here though, is how it was achieved.
In this instance there was the goal put forward to reduce the number of protective engine shrouds. This is an example of framing – identifying the engineering challenge that will be the focus.
The number of shrouds was reduced by integrating many sensors and plumbing into the housing wall. This is an example of systemic thinking. By understanding how each part and subsystem interacts with others, opportunities can be found to harmonise all elements of the design. In this case, they could all use the same heat shield.
In addition, parts were combined into one (via welding as opposed to bolted joints). Having fewer parts means a more compact and lighter design. But, in this case, and often in others, it means more difficult servicing. The judgment would have been made that the increased cost in servicing was less than the money made carrying more cargo. These competing needs can both be quantified – so, it would be expected that, first principles would have been used to establish the most profitable compromise.

In summary:
  • When doing something very new, the engineers leant into coevolution.
  • Much of the reduction in complexity came from developing the right frame and then using systemic thinking.
  • First principles were used to find the right compromise between revenue generation and servicing cost.

If you can’t recall the details of things like framing, systemic thing, and first principles, then take a listen here – it will take you 10 minutes.

If you have any questions or thoughts about how engineering expertise was applied in these engines or about developing your own abilities, so you too could do that, then leave a comment or send me a message.

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    Author

    Clint Steele is an expert in how engineering skills are influenced by your background and how you can enhance them once you understand yourself. He has written a book on the - The Global Engineer - and this blog delves further into the topic.

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