​What Would an Engineer Do? Applying Control Theory to the Israel–Palestine Conflict

Or, let’s apply boundary analysis to The Holy Land
In the realm of engineering, we often tackle complex systems by identifying their fundamental principles, understanding systemic behaviours, and reframing the challenge. As you would know from my prior writing – these are the three core attributes of the global engineer.
Also, by exploring how these three attributes can be used to solve non-engineering problems, we can sometimes better understand their application – analogies are good like that.
This will be the first article where we do this. And I thought I might as well go all in with something both timely and controversial. So let's apply global engineering expertise to a longstanding and deeply entrenched geopolitical issue: the Israel–Palestine conflict.
First Principles: Understanding Human Behaviour
One of the first principles to acknowledge is the inherent human tendency towards in-group preference and out-group suspicion. Evolutionary psychology suggests that such behaviours may have been advantageous for early human survival, leading to a natural predisposition towards xenophobia. This predisposition can manifest in societies as a persistent undercurrent of tension between different groups.
Moreover, history has shown that leaders can exploit these tendencies, amplifying fear and hostility towards 'the other' to consolidate power and unify their base. This manipulation often leads to increased conflict, as fear becomes a tool for political gain.
Systemic Thinking: The Dynamics of Conflict
From a systems perspective, the Israel–Palestine conflict is not merely a series of isolated incidents but a complex interplay of historical grievances, cultural differences, and political interests. Within any large population, there will always be individuals or factions inclined towards aggression or retaliation. This reality creates a feedback loop where acts of violence beget further violence, perpetuating the cycle of conflict.
Additionally, the international community, particularly the United States, provides substantial financial and military support to Israel and Palestinians. This support is often justified as a means to promote stability and peace in the region. However, without mechanisms to ensure that this aid contributes to reducing conflict, it can inadvertently sustain the status quo.
Reframing the Problem: Shifting Focus from Sides to Systems
Traditional approaches to the conflict often involve taking sides or attempting to assign blame. You have probably found you naturally do that yourself – asking which side it right. However, this framing has proven ineffective in achieving lasting peace. Instead, we can reframe the problem by focusing on creating systems that incentivize peaceful behaviour, regardless of the underlying political or ideological differences. You don’t need to choose a side, you just focus on helping people have a better life.
Engineering a Solution: Applying Control Theory
Control theory, a fundamental concept in engineering, involves designing systems that maintain desired outputs despite external disturbances. Applying this to the Israel–Palestine conflict, we can conceptualize a feedback mechanism where international aid is contingent upon the level of peace maintained in the region.
For instance, a predetermined amount of aid, say the amount given in 2024, could be pledged annually, adjusted for inflation. However, any acts of aggression or escalation of conflict would result in a proportional reduction of this aid. This negative feedback loop would create a tangible incentive for all parties to minimize conflict, as continued aggression would directly impact the resources available to them. Governments especially would be motivated to ensure these funds continue to flow in so they can keep taxes low while still providing services.
Such a system would also empower moderate voices advocating for peace, as they could point to the direct consequences of conflict on their community's well-being. It shifts the focus from ideological victories to practical outcomes, aligning incentives with the desired state of peace.
The Political Engineer vs the Political Scientist
In my book, I compare engineers with other professionals. One comparison was with scientists and the use of boundary analysis common in engineering textbooks, but often absent in scientific textbooks – even when the basic topic is the same. While scientists are, almost by definition, focused on why a system works, engineers are happy to understand how it works so they can move onto the next step to implement what they are working on. In this case, we don’t care about the specific action the people will take to ensure peace, we simply care that they will take action of some sort and keep trying until they find it. The scientific question can be answered after the engineering solution is implemented.
Conclusion: Engineering Peace Through Systemic Incentives
While the Israel–Palestine conflict is deeply complex, applying engineering principles like control theory offers a novel perspective. By designing systems that align incentives with peaceful behaviour, we can create environments where cooperation becomes more beneficial than conflict. This approach doesn't solve all underlying issues but provides a framework for reducing violence and promoting stability.
Disclaimer and request
Because you are likely an erudite reader (and if you don’t know what that means, then look it up – you will laugh when you read the meaning and think about how I assumed the word described you) you have potentially noted that this is a lot like an idea put by Edward de Bono (not the marmite idea). This is true – I have reverse engineered his idea and expanded upon it.
If you think of any other non-engineering topics you would like to see given engineering attention, then let me know. We can even thrash out a solution together.